Studies have also found that U.S. government estimates of recidivism of Guantanamo Bay detainees
have been overstated and misleading, based on inaccurate or unsubstantiated data and lacking
evidence that specific released detainees joined or returned to the fight against the United States. 165
In 2010 the U.S. government estimated a 25 percent rate of confirmed and suspected recidivism
among released Guantanamo Bay detainees. But in a comprehensive study of U.S. DOD reports and
publicly available information, the New America Foundation (NAF) found that the actual rate of
recidivism for released detainees was 6 percent. 166 NAF’s study excluded individuals who were
alleged only to have been “associated” with militant groups and included only those individuals that
have participated in attacks on U.S. interests or its allies—including Pakistan—not more broadly in
actions against countries like Russia. 167 In 2013, another analysis by the NAF found that the overall
number of ex-detainees that have “confirmed of reengaging” stands at 4 percent—in stark contrast
to the Director of National Intelligence’s (DNI) 2013 estimate of 16.1 percent—and the total number
ex-detainees “suspected of reengaging” is at 4.7 percent—significantly lower than DNI’s number of
11.9 percent. 168
Though the recidivism rate for detainees released from DFIP is not known, there are indications that
it may also be quite low. In 2010, the U.S. commander in charge of detention operations in
Afghanistan, Vice Admiral Harward, stated that the “recapture” rate of detainees held at the DFIP
that year was less than 1 percent. 169 Though Vice Admiral Harward noted that this was different
from the recidivism rate, which could not be confirmed, he cited this low rate as indicative of the
165
Because of the high profile of ex-Guantanamo detainees, there is reasonable reliability of publicly available
reporting on recidivism of ex-detainees. See The Constitution Project, “The Report of the Constitution Project”,
p. 299-300; Mark Denbeaux, “Released Guantanamo detainees and the Department of Defense: propaganda
by the numbers?”, Seton Hall University School of Law,
http://law.shu.edu/publications/guantanamoReports/propaganda_numbers_11509.pdf; Peter Bergen,
Katherine Tiedemann and Andrew Lebovich, “How many Gitmo alumni take up arms?” Foreign Policy, 11
January, 2011,
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/01/11/how_many_gitmo_alumni_take_up_arms?wp_login_redir
ect=0; New America Foundation, “Appendix: Guantanamo – Who really ‘returned to the battlefield?’”, 11
January, 2011,
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/files/fp_uploaded_documents/110112_RecidivismAppendix2.pdf; Nancy
Talanian, “Congress receives misleading report about Guantanamo ‘recidivism’”, Huffington Post, 9 December,
2010, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nancy-talanian/congress-receives-mislead_b_794514.html; House
Armed Services Committee, “Leaving Guantanamo: policies, pressures, and detainees returning to the fight”,
January, 2012, http://armedservices.house.gov/index.cfm/files/serve?File_id=dd0b4c6e-528e-4138-975586bae92e1cdb, ps. 68-77.
166
Director of National Intelligence, “Summary of the reengagement of detainees formerly held at
Guantanamo Bay, Cuba”,
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/files/fp_uploaded_documents/110111_0_120710_Summary_of_the_Reengage
ment_of_Detainees_Formerly_Held_at_Guantanamo_Bay_Cuba.pdf; New America Foundation, “Appendix:
Guantanamo”.
167
Peter Bergen, “How many Gitmo alumni take up arms?”.
168
Director of National Intelligence, “Summary of the reengagement of detainees formerly held at
Guantanamo Bay, Cuba”, March 2013,
http://www.dni.gov/files/documents/March%202013%20GTMO%20Reengagement%20Release.pdf; New
America Foundation, “How many Guantanamo detainees ‘return to the battlefield’?”, 7 May, 2013,
http://newamerica.net/sites/newamerica.net/files/profiles/attachments/GTMO_Appendix_5-7-2013.pdf
169
DOD News briefing with Vice Adm. Harward from Afghanistan, 30 November, 2010,
http://www.defense.gov/transcripts/transcript.aspx?transcriptid=4727.
43
Select target paragraph3
Connect to a paragraph
Connect to an entity
Disable highlights
Add to table of contents