Studies have also found that U.S. government estimates of recidivism of Guantanamo Bay detainees have been overstated and misleading, based on inaccurate or unsubstantiated data and lacking evidence that specific released detainees joined or returned to the fight against the United States. 165 In 2010 the U.S. government estimated a 25 percent rate of confirmed and suspected recidivism among released Guantanamo Bay detainees. But in a comprehensive study of U.S. DOD reports and publicly available information, the New America Foundation (NAF) found that the actual rate of recidivism for released detainees was 6 percent. 166 NAF’s study excluded individuals who were alleged only to have been “associated” with militant groups and included only those individuals that have participated in attacks on U.S. interests or its allies—including Pakistan—not more broadly in actions against countries like Russia. 167 In 2013, another analysis by the NAF found that the overall number of ex-detainees that have “confirmed of reengaging” stands at 4 percent—in stark contrast to the Director of National Intelligence’s (DNI) 2013 estimate of 16.1 percent—and the total number ex-detainees “suspected of reengaging” is at 4.7 percent—significantly lower than DNI’s number of 11.9 percent. 168 Though the recidivism rate for detainees released from DFIP is not known, there are indications that it may also be quite low. In 2010, the U.S. commander in charge of detention operations in Afghanistan, Vice Admiral Harward, stated that the “recapture” rate of detainees held at the DFIP that year was less than 1 percent. 169 Though Vice Admiral Harward noted that this was different from the recidivism rate, which could not be confirmed, he cited this low rate as indicative of the 165 Because of the high profile of ex-Guantanamo detainees, there is reasonable reliability of publicly available reporting on recidivism of ex-detainees. See The Constitution Project, “The Report of the Constitution Project”, p. 299-300; Mark Denbeaux, “Released Guantanamo detainees and the Department of Defense: propaganda by the numbers?”, Seton Hall University School of Law, http://law.shu.edu/publications/guantanamoReports/propaganda_numbers_11509.pdf; Peter Bergen, Katherine Tiedemann and Andrew Lebovich, “How many Gitmo alumni take up arms?” Foreign Policy, 11 January, 2011, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/01/11/how_many_gitmo_alumni_take_up_arms?wp_login_redir ect=0; New America Foundation, “Appendix: Guantanamo – Who really ‘returned to the battlefield?’”, 11 January, 2011, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/files/fp_uploaded_documents/110112_RecidivismAppendix2.pdf; Nancy Talanian, “Congress receives misleading report about Guantanamo ‘recidivism’”, Huffington Post, 9 December, 2010, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nancy-talanian/congress-receives-mislead_b_794514.html; House Armed Services Committee, “Leaving Guantanamo: policies, pressures, and detainees returning to the fight”, January, 2012, http://armedservices.house.gov/index.cfm/files/serve?File_id=dd0b4c6e-528e-4138-975586bae92e1cdb, ps. 68-77. 166 Director of National Intelligence, “Summary of the reengagement of detainees formerly held at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba”, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/files/fp_uploaded_documents/110111_0_120710_Summary_of_the_Reengage ment_of_Detainees_Formerly_Held_at_Guantanamo_Bay_Cuba.pdf; New America Foundation, “Appendix: Guantanamo”. 167 Peter Bergen, “How many Gitmo alumni take up arms?”. 168 Director of National Intelligence, “Summary of the reengagement of detainees formerly held at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba”, March 2013, http://www.dni.gov/files/documents/March%202013%20GTMO%20Reengagement%20Release.pdf; New America Foundation, “How many Guantanamo detainees ‘return to the battlefield’?”, 7 May, 2013, http://newamerica.net/sites/newamerica.net/files/profiles/attachments/GTMO_Appendix_5-7-2013.pdf 169 DOD News briefing with Vice Adm. Harward from Afghanistan, 30 November, 2010, http://www.defense.gov/transcripts/transcript.aspx?transcriptid=4727. 43

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